這是2014年和一個歷史學家email討論的部份文字。我一直認為有三個可能造成共產黨政權崩潰的原因，一是經濟失敗，二是北韓的瘋子錯誤計算以為美國不敢動他而挑戰美國，把中國拉下水，三是中國在東海或南海錯誤計算，直接挑戰美國失敗。我一向賭第二個原因，今天的氫彈新聞，看來又強化我的信心了。
I always thought there are three possibilities that will directly cause the CCP to fall. First, an economic collapse does the work, similar to what the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis did to Suharto in Indonesia. Second, the stupid new leader in North Korea does something his grandfather did - miscalculating U.S.'s determination in East Asia and involving China in a war with the U.S. And third, miscalculations by Xi and his colleagues in pushing China' territory claim in the East and South China Seas lead to a direct war with the U.S. The second possibility is always my top pick.
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